Pa. seat is latest Democratic worry

Murtha’s southwestern Pennsylvania district, which covers coal and steel country, provides Republicans with another prime opportunity to show continued momentum. It’s the
only district in the entire country that supported John McCain in the
2008 presidential election after voting for John Kerry in 2004.

McCain won a 49 percent plurality here in 2008, while Kerry carried the district with 51 percent of the vote in 2004.

“This is a district where party still matters a bit—so someone coming out of the Democratic organizations out in the district would not be a
surprise,” said Terry Madonna, director of the Center of Politics and
Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College. “The voters there are
more pro-life, pro-gun and patriotic, but need help from the government
because of the economics of the district. In the post-[Scott] Brown
period, depending on the candidates, you could not categorically rule
out a Republican possibility there.”

Murtha, famous for his success at delivering federal dollars to his economically struggling district, held a near-stranglehold on the seat
since first capturing it in 1974. The longest-serving congressman in
Pennsylvania history, Murtha won 58 percent of the vote despite facing
a well-funded Republican challenger in his last campaign.

The veteran incumbent had a close relationship with state Sen. John Wozniak, who state Democratic operatives consider a likely candidate to
run in the special. Wozniak has served in the state legislature since
1980, representing the district's population base in Johnstown. Since
the nominee will be chosen by a group of local Democratic leaders,
Wozniak looks to have the inside track, if he decides to run.

Former Lt. Gov. Mark Singel, who served briefly as governor after former Gov. Bob Casey’s death in 1993, is another possible Democratic
candidate. Singel lost a bid for governor in 1994 and formed his own
lobbying firm, The Winter Group, in 2005.

On the Republican side, Murtha’s 2008 opponent Bill Russell and businessman Tim Burns were already running against him, and are likely
contenders. Washington County Commissioner Diana Irey, who won 39
percent of the vote against Murtha in 2006, is another potential
special election candidate, according to Republican sources.

“It’s a much more difficult political equation without John Murtha in that seat than with him there,” Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chairman
T.J. Rooney told POLITICO.

Murtha’s death means that House Republicans will likely be contesting as many as eight Democratic-held House seats in the state—most of which
they lost in the last two elections. The National Republican
Congressional Committee is aggressively challenging Reps. Chris Carney
(D-Pa.), Paul Kanjorski (D-Pa.) and Jason Altmire (D-Pa.), among
others, and have one of their top recruits in former U.S. Attorney Pat
Meehan, who is running for the seat being vacated by Rep. Joe Sestak
(D-Pa.)